Where the benchmarks sit today
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | Variable and short-term borrowing |
| Prime | 4.45% | Variable mortgages, HELOCs, lines of credit |
| CORRA | 2.30% | Floating commercial and construction financing |
| Government of Canada 5-year | 3.66% | Conventional fixed mortgage pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5-year | 3.80% | CMHC-insured and multi-unit pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10-year | 4.24% | Longer-term CMHC-insured and MLI Select |
From our live market feed, as at September 15, 2026. Rates and figures change frequently and are benchmarks, not offers.
What is actually happening
Statistics Canada reported on September 14 that inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July. Gasoline remains the largest single contributor, up 22.8 percent on the year, a slower pace than July's 25.7 percent, and it accounts for most of the gap between headline inflation and the 2 percent target. The number that will interest the Bank is the one underneath: stripped of gasoline, inflation rose to 2.4 percent in August from 2.2 percent in July. That is the spillover the Bank flagged on September 2, showing up at the edges.
Core measures are calmer, though not uniformly. CPI-trim was 1.9 percent and CPI-median 2.0 percent in August, both at or below target, while CPI-common sat higher at 2.6 percent. Rent accelerated to 2.8 percent and grocery inflation slowed to 2.8 percent, running below headline for the first time since July 2024. Atlantic Canada carried the highest provincial inflation rates, with national fuel oil prices up 43.7 percent weighing on provinces where fuel oil is more commonly used.
The labour market went the other way. August employment fell 42,000 after a cumulative gain of 181,000 from April through July, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.4 percent. Average hourly wage growth slowed to 2.0 percent year over year, the slowest pace since November 2017 outside the pandemic year, which means wages are now running below inflation. Closer to home, Nova Scotia added jobs in August and its unemployment rate edged down to 6.1 percent while the country shed positions.
There is a case on both sides. The Bank cited second-quarter GDP up 3.3 percent and a broadening recovery, alongside the new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures and still-high energy prices. Against that, August's job losses and wage growth below inflation point the other way. So why did yields rise while domestic data softened? The Bank gave the answer in its own statement: financial conditions have tightened and long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada. That is a global move, and fixed mortgage pricing follows it, not the policy rate.
The benchmarks that move your mortgage
| Benchmark | Now | What it is, and who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | The overnight rate. It anchors everything and sets the tone for variable and short-term borrowing. |
| Prime | 4.45% | What variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit price off. It tracks the Bank, normally point for point. |
| CORRA | 2.30% | Canada's near risk-free overnight benchmark. It drives floating commercial and construction financing and the term pricing built on top of it. |
| GoC 5-year yield | 3.66% | The market yield behind conventional fixed mortgage pricing. A fixed rate is this plus a lender spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5yr | 3.80% | Sets the cost of CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing. Its gap over GoC is the insured spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10yr | 4.24% | The benchmark for longer-term CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing, including the longer terms common in MLI Select deals. |
Nobody expected a move. Everybody is watching October 28.
We read the major bank economics desks so you do not have to. We report what they publish; we do not add a house forecast of our own. The September hold was universally expected and the desks agree on the rest of 2026: no change. Where they split is 2027. Worth noting that a desk can expect policy hikes and lower long yields at the same time: Scotiabank Economics' September 9 forecast tables put the 5-year Government of Canada yield at 3.50 percent at the end of 2026, slightly below where it sits today. What follows are third-party views as published to mid-September 2026; they are dated and they change.
Still the one desk with hikes inside 2026. Derek Holt looks for 75 basis points of increases beginning in the fourth quarter and points to October 28 as the decision that matters, given the inflation, jobs, GDP, energy and trade data still to come.
Holds the Bank at 2.25 percent through the end of 2026, then 2.50 percent in the first quarter of 2027 and about 3.25 percent by the end of 2027. Notably, RBC lifted its Canadian inflation forecast this month, now seeing headline CPI ending the year closer to 3 percent rather than the roughly 2.5 percent it assumed in August.
Sees the policy rate at 2.25 percent through 2026, then a gradual climb to 2.50 percent by the middle of 2027 and 2.75 percent by the end of that year. Continues to flag the renewal wall, the slice of mortgages facing sizeable payment increases, as a real constraint on households.
No move for the rest of 2026, then a measured climb: a first step to 2.50 percent early in 2027 and a second to 2.75 percent by mid-year, holding there into the year.
The steady-hand view. TD looks for the policy rate to average 2.25 percent in 2026 and hold well beyond, and BMO has been in the same camp, pointing to an economy still working through tariff disruption and core inflation sitting near target.
Not one major desk forecasts a cut. The floor is 2.25 percent and the argument is only about when the next increase lands and how far it goes. A Reuters poll ahead of the September decision found all 35 economists expecting the hold, with the median path holding through 2026.
The shape of the market
What it means for your file
The borrowing decision
Fixed pricing repriced this month even though the Bank did not move, which is a reminder that watching the policy rate alone will not tell you where fixed costs are going. The question is which risk you would rather hold, not which rate is lower.
Priced off the GoC 5-year, now near 3.66 percent, plus a lender spread. You buy payment certainty at a level that has moved up, not down, over the past month.
Priced off Prime at 4.45 percent, less whatever discount a lender offers. Flexibility, and it can still win on a hold if the discounted rate starts below the fixed rate, though no major desk currently forecasts cuts.
CMHC corner: insured & multi-unit
| CMB 5-year | 3.80% | +0.14 over GoC |
| CMB 10-year | 4.24% | +0.28 over GoC |
Insured lending, high-ratio residential through multi-unit, references the bond market rather than the policy rate, and multi-unit in particular the Canada Mortgage Bond. The spread held roughly steady this month while the underlying benchmarks rose (GoC 10-year 3.96 percent), so the all-in cost of insured financing moved up with the market. On a commercial deal the financing-cost-to-cap-rate spread governs (CBRE: 6.58 percent national all-property cap rate, Q2; Halifax vacancy 2.7 percent, 0.7 percent for affordable units, CMHC), and we size to debt service coverage, not a headline. A date for multi-unit borrowers: September 30, 2026. It closes CMHC's transition window for MLI Select energy attestations under the older building and energy codes. New construction files scored after it are measured against the 2020 codes, and because those baselines are more efficient, an identical design earns fewer energy points. Worth a conversation now if a project is close to the line. Coming soon: a dedicated brief on financing construction and development, covering what a rate commitment actually protects and what happens at takeout.
What we are watching
Dates per the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada schedules, and are subject to change. The Bank's summary of deliberations for the September 2 decision was released on September 16, after this issue was prepared, and will be reflected in our next update.
CPI. The Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada's measure of inflation; its year-over-year change is the Bank's key target.
Core inflation. CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out the most extreme price moves to show the underlying trend.
CORRA. Canada's risk-free overnight rate benchmark, the base for floating commercial and term pricing.
Canada Mortgage Bond. Government-backed bonds that fund insured mortgages; their yield sets CMHC-insured pricing.
Cap rate. A property's net operating income divided by its value, the income yield a buyer earns.
Debt service coverage. The cushion between a property's income and its loan payments; lenders size loans to it.
Basis point. One one-hundredth of a percent. 25 basis points is 0.25 percent.
Spread. The gap a lender adds over a benchmark, or the gap between two rates.
Insured spread. The gap between the Canada Mortgage Bond and the GoC yield. A funding benchmark, not the CMHC insurance premium a borrower pays.
Blend and extend. Combining your existing rate with a new one and resetting the term, done with your current lender.
A hold is not the same thing as cheap fixed money. The Bank stood still in September and fixed pricing still moved up, because the two run off different engines. We report what the desks publish rather than adding a forecast of our own. As brokers, not bankers, our job is to structure your financing to your timeline across many lenders, not to bet your file on which desk turns out to be right.
For general information and illustration only, not financial, legal, or lending advice. Rates and figures are market benchmarks as at the dates shown and change frequently. APR. OAC. For illustrative purposes only. Subject to change without notice. Mortgage broker services provided by TMG AnchorPoint Mortgage Inc., Licence #3000145.