Where the benchmarks sit today
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.50% | Variable and short-term borrowing |
| Prime | 4.70% | Variable mortgages, HELOCs, lines of credit |
| CORRA | 2.24% | Floating commercial and construction financing |
| Government of Canada 5-year | 3.56% | Conventional fixed mortgage pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5-year | 3.73% | CMHC-insured and multi-unit pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10-year | 4.11% | Longer-term CMHC-insured and MLI Select |
From our live market feed, as at October 28, 2026. Rates and figures change frequently and are benchmarks, not offers.
What is actually happening
The Bank raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.50 percent on October 28 to reduce the risk that high energy prices spread to other prices. Its Monetary Policy Report sees inflation averaging 3 percent in 2027 before returning to 2 percent by mid-2028, and growth of 1 percent this year and 2 percent next. More increases could be needed, it said, but it will proceed carefully.
Employment fell 68,000 in September after a 42,000 drop in August, Statistics Canada reported October 9, and unemployment rose to 6.5 percent.
Atlantic Canada was mixed. Nova Scotia's employment was little changed and its unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent; New Brunswick sat at 7.4 percent and Newfoundland and Labrador at 9.1 percent, while Prince Edward Island added 1,000 jobs.
The Bank's case rests on pass-through: its surveys suggest businesses will pass more of their higher costs to customers over the next year. Against that, core inflation is close to 2 percent and the Bank still sees some excess supply.
Bond markets moved on their own. Long yields sold off globally into late September, after the US Federal Reserve raised its range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, then Canadian yields eased through October.
Inflation edged up to 3.1 percent in September from 3.0 in August, Statistics Canada reported October 19, led by gasoline, up 27.8 percent on the year. Excluding gasoline it eased to 2.2 percent from 2.4, as did the core measures the Bank tracks: CPI-trim 1.8 percent, CPI-median 1.9. Atlantic Canada ran hotter, with fuel oil, up 57.8 percent, weighing more there: Nova Scotia 5.6 percent, Prince Edward Island 5.7, New Brunswick 5.0, Newfoundland and Labrador 4.7.
The benchmarks that move your mortgage
| Benchmark | Now | What it is, and who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.50% | The overnight rate. It anchors everything and sets the tone for variable and short-term borrowing. |
| Prime | 4.70% | What variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit price off. It tracks the Bank, normally point for point. |
| CORRA | 2.24% | Canada's near risk-free overnight benchmark. It drives floating commercial and construction financing and the term pricing built on top of it. |
| GoC 5-year yield | 3.56% | The market yield behind conventional fixed mortgage pricing. A fixed rate is this plus a lender spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5yr | 3.73% | Sets the cost of CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing. Its gap over GoC is the insured spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10yr | 4.11% | The benchmark for longer-term CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing, including the longer terms common in MLI Select deals. |
The Bank moved. Three bank desks see one more increase in early 2027.
We read the major bank economics desks so you do not have to. We report what they publish; we do not add a house forecast of our own. Three desks, Desjardins, CIBC and TD, published views after the October 28 decision; others had not by press time. Each of the three sees one more increase early in 2027 and none sees a cut. These are dated third-party views and they change.
Royce Mendes called the increase a tough, forward-looking decision that lowers the risk of a more aggressive tightening cycle later. He sees a December follow-up as a coin flip that will turn on the data, and keeps Desjardins' call that the next and final increase comes in January 2027. Reaction of October 28, per The Globe and Mail.
Andrew Grantham looks for a hold on December 9 and one more quarter-point increase in January. In his October 28 note he said he does not expect core inflation to accelerate as much as the Bank fears, and does not see the rate needing to rise above 2.75 percent, the midpoint of the Bank's neutral range.
TD's October 28 note called the increase the Bank taking out some insurance, after arguing the case for patience was strong. It expects enough cost pass-through to prompt one more quarter-point increase in the first quarter of 2027, to 2.75 percent, with a much higher bar for increases after that.
After the announcement, money markets priced about a 42 percent chance of another increase on December 9, and about 75 basis points of further tightening over the next year, per Bloomberg data reported by The Globe and Mail on October 28. Market pricing moves daily.
The Bank said there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, but given the uncertainties it will proceed carefully and take decisions one meeting at a time. It named energy prices and Canada-US trade as the two most important risks to its inflation outlook.
All three desks that published after the decision see one more increase early in 2027, and none sees a cut. CIBC and TD put the peak at 2.75 percent. They differ on timing: Desjardins and CIBC point to January, TD to the first quarter, and markets give December a little under even odds.
The shape of the market
What it means for your file
The borrowing decision
The Bank raised its rate this month while fixed-rate benchmarks eased. The two markets move on their own timetables, and the question is which risk you would rather hold, not which rate is lower.
Priced off the GoC 5-year, near 3.56 percent, plus a lender spread. Down from September's high despite the Bank's increase, but above where it sat for most of the past year.
Priced off Prime, less any lender discount. Prime rose to 4.70 percent with the Bank's increase. The Bank decides next on December 9.
CMHC corner: insured & multi-unit
| CMB 5-year | 3.73% | +0.17 over GoC |
| CMB 10-year | 4.11% | +0.29 over GoC |
Insured lending, high-ratio residential through multi-unit, references the bond market rather than the policy rate, and multi-unit in particular the Canada Mortgage Bond. This month the insured spread widened slightly as GoC yields fell further than CMB yields, so insured and multi-unit benchmarks eased a little less than conventional ones. The Bank's increase reaches floating construction and commercial debt through Prime and CORRA. On a commercial file the financing-cost-to-cap-rate spread governs (CBRE: 6.58 percent national all-property cap rate, Q2; Q3 pending; Halifax vacancy 2.7 percent, 0.7 for affordable units, CMHC), and we size to debt service coverage, not a headline. A date for multi-unit borrowers: December 8. CMHC's 2026 Rental Market Report, the fuller read on vacancy and rents behind multi-unit underwriting, is scheduled for that day. Coming soon: a dedicated brief on financing construction and development, covering what a rate commitment actually protects and what happens at takeout.
What we are watching
Dates per the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada schedules, subject to change.
CPI. The Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada's measure of inflation; its year-over-year change is the Bank's key target.
Core inflation. CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out the most extreme price moves to show the underlying trend.
CORRA. Canada's risk-free overnight rate benchmark, the base for floating commercial and term pricing.
Canada Mortgage Bond. Government-backed bonds that fund insured mortgages; their yield sets CMHC-insured pricing.
Cap rate. A property's net operating income divided by its value, the income yield a buyer earns.
Debt service coverage. The cushion between a property's income and its loan payments; lenders size loans to it.
Basis point. One one-hundredth of a percent. 25 basis points is 0.25 percent.
Spread. The gap a lender adds over a benchmark, or the gap between two rates.
Insured spread. The gap between the Canada Mortgage Bond and the GoC yield. A funding benchmark, not the CMHC insurance premium a borrower pays.
Blend and extend. Combining your existing rate with a new one and resetting the term, done with your current lender.
A rate increase into a softening job market tells you which risk the Bank fears more. In October it leaned against energy costs spreading into other prices while bond yields eased. We report what the Bank and the desks publish rather than adding a forecast of our own. As brokers, not bankers, our job is to structure your financing to your timeline across many lenders, not to bet your file on which call turns out to be right.
For general information and illustration only, not financial, legal, or lending advice. Rates and figures are market benchmarks as at the dates shown and change frequently. APR. OAC. For illustrative purposes only. Subject to change without notice. Mortgage broker services provided by TMG AnchorPoint Mortgage Inc., a licensed mortgage brokerage: NS Licence 3000145, NB Licence 260055962, NL Licence 26-07-TM223-1.