Where the benchmarks sit today
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | Variable and short-term borrowing |
| Prime | 4.45% | Variable mortgages, HELOCs, lines of credit |
| CORRA | 2.33% | Floating commercial and construction financing |
| Government of Canada 5-year | 3.05% | Conventional fixed mortgage pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5-year | 3.24% | CMHC-insured and multi-unit pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10-year | 3.66% | Longer-term CMHC-insured and MLI Select |
From our live market feed, as at June 23, 2026. Rates and figures change frequently and are benchmarks, not offers.
What is actually happening
The Bank held at 2.25 percent on June 10, its fifth hold in a row, and framed the choice as a genuine dilemma: soft growth on one side, firmer inflation on the other. CPI rose to 2.8 percent in April from 2.4 percent in March, led by energy, and the latest jobs report added about 87,800 positions, pulling unemployment to 6.6 percent.
Markets reacted the way they do to good news on growth. Bond yields moved up, and fixed pricing, which tracks them, has faced upward pressure through the spring. The deep-cut phase of this cycle is behind us. The debate now is how long the hold lasts, and whether the next move is a small hike or a final cut.
The benchmarks that move your mortgage
| Benchmark | Now | What it is, and who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | The overnight rate. It anchors everything and sets the tone for variable and short-term borrowing. |
| Prime | 4.45% | What variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit price off. It moves step for step with the Bank. |
| CORRA | 2.33% | Canada's risk-free overnight benchmark. It drives floating commercial and construction financing and the term pricing built on top of it. |
| GoC 5-year yield | 3.05% | The market yield behind conventional fixed mortgage pricing. A fixed rate is this plus a lender spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5yr | 3.24% | Sets the cost of CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing. Its gap over GoC is the insured premium. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10yr | 3.66% | The benchmark for longer-term CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing, including the longer terms common in MLI Select deals. |
Canada's bank economists agree on 2026, and split hard on 2027
We read the major economics desks so you do not have to. Most desks see a hold at 2.25 percent through 2026, though not all. Where they part ways is how soon the path turns, and that spread of views is the whole point: credible economists disagree, which is exactly why we build for your timeline rather than a single forecast.
Argues the Bank is done cutting and the next move is more likely a hike than a cut, with inflation risks tilted up from resilient consumer demand and the cost of trade reconfiguration. Flags that hikes could come as early as the second half of 2026.
Leans the other way, seeing a cut as the more likely next move if growth softens, and the policy rate holding low well beyond 2026. The mirror image of RBC, and a reminder the risk runs both ways.
Focuses on the renewal wall, warning a slice of borrowers face payment jumps of 50 percent or more without relief, and on a per-capita recession concentrated in Ontario and B.C. Treats tariffs as a persistent, sector-specific cost pressure.
See the policy rate edging higher by late 2026 as the economy proves resilient, with trade and tariff uncertainty the wildcard that could delay or reset the path either way.
The steady-hand view: the policy rate holds at 2.25 percent through 2026, with no compelling case yet for a move in either direction. Stability, not drama.
Nobody on the Street expects the deep cuts of the last cycle to return. The split is whether the next move is a modest hike or a final cut, a genuinely two-sided risk, and the reason to choose structure over a forecast.
The shape of the market
What it means for your file
The borrowing decision
The gap between fixed and variable is narrow right now, so the question is which risk you would rather hold, not which rate is lower.
Off the GoC 5yr near 3 percent, plus a lender spread. You buy payment certainty.
Off Prime at 4.45 percent. Flexibility, and a bet on cuts the Street is split on.
CMHC corner: insured & multi-unit
| CMB 5-year | 3.24% | +0.19 over GoC |
| CMB 10-year | 3.66% | +0.23 over GoC |
Insured deals, high-ratio residential through multi-unit, price off the Canada Mortgage Bond, not the policy rate. That spread over GoC is the premium insured borrowers carry, and it widens at the 10-year. On a commercial deal the financing-cost-to-cap-rate spread governs (CBRE: 6.61 percent national all-property cap rate, Q1), and we size to debt service coverage, not a headline. Circle September 30, 2026: CMHC's MLI Select energy scoring tightens, so a build that qualifies under today's scoring is worth moving on. Halifax stays tight: rental vacancy about 2.7 percent.
What we are watching
Dates per the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada schedules, and are subject to change.
CORRA. Canada's risk-free overnight interest-rate benchmark, the base for floating commercial and term pricing.
Canada Mortgage Bond. Government-backed bonds that fund insured mortgages; their yield sets CMHC-insured pricing.
Cap rate. A property's net operating income divided by its value, the income yield a buyer earns.
Debt service coverage. The cushion between a property's income and its loan payments; lenders size loans to it.
Basis point. One one-hundredth of a percent. 25 basis points is 0.25 percent.
Spread. The gap a lender adds over a benchmark, or the gap between two rates.
Do not borrow on a forecast, especially when the country's best economists cannot agree on one. As brokers, not bankers, our job is structure that fits your timeline, reviewed early, across many lenders. With the Bank two-sided, fixed and variable close, and insured spreads holding, that is where the win is, and the conversation we are here for.
For general information and illustration only, not financial, legal, or lending advice. Rates and figures are market benchmarks as at the dates shown and change frequently. APR. OAC. Subject to change without notice. Mortgage broker services provided by TMG AnchorPoint Mortgage Inc., Licence #3000145.