Where the benchmarks sit today
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | Variable and short-term borrowing |
| Prime | 4.45% | Variable mortgages, HELOCs, lines of credit |
| CORRA | 2.30% | Floating commercial and construction financing |
| Government of Canada 5-year | 3.21% | Conventional fixed mortgage pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5-year | 3.35% | CMHC-insured and multi-unit pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10-year | 3.79% | Longer-term CMHC-insured and MLI Select |
From our live market feed, as at July 15, 2026. Rates and figures change frequently and are benchmarks, not offers.
What is actually happening
The Bank held at 2.25 percent on July 15, its sixth hold in a row, and used the July Monetary Policy Report to mark a turn in the economy. After roughly a year of stalling, growth has resumed: the Bank now projects GDP growth of 0.7 percent in 2026, rising to 1.8 percent in both 2027 and 2028.
Inflation is the complication. CPI rose to 3.2 percent in May from 2.8 percent in April, the hottest reading since late 2023, led by gasoline tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Stripping out gasoline, inflation was 2.2 percent and the Bank's core measures held near 2.1 percent. The Bank expects inflation to stay elevated in June, then ease toward 2 percent in early 2027 if oil prices come down.
Markets reacted the way they do to firmer growth and hotter inflation: bond yields moved up, and fixed pricing, which tracks them, followed. The 5-year Government of Canada yield rose from about 3.0 percent in June to 3.21 percent by mid-July. The deep-cut phase of this cycle is behind us; the debate now is when, not whether, the next move is a hike.
The benchmarks that move your mortgage
| Benchmark | Now | What it is, and who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | The overnight rate. It anchors everything and sets the tone for variable and short-term borrowing. |
| Prime | 4.45% | What variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit price off. It moves step for step with the Bank. |
| CORRA | 2.30% | Canada's risk-free overnight benchmark. It drives floating commercial and construction financing and the term pricing built on top of it. |
| GoC 5-year yield | 3.21% | The market yield behind conventional fixed mortgage pricing. A fixed rate is this plus a lender spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5yr | 3.35% | Sets the cost of CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing. Its gap over GoC is the insured premium. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10yr | 3.79% | The benchmark for longer-term CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing, including the longer terms common in MLI Select deals. |
Nobody expects cuts now. The debate is when hikes start.
We read the major economics desks so you do not have to. Most desks expect a hold for the rest of 2026, and a Reuters survey of 36 economists was unanimous on the July hold. Where they part ways is late 2026 into 2027, and this month the split moved decisively toward hikes rather than cuts. That disagreement is exactly why we build for your timeline rather than a single forecast.
Now sees the Bank raising twice before year end as the economy proves resilient and headline inflation runs above target, treating trade and tariff friction as a cost pressure that keeps prices sticky.
Has shifted up, now looking for the policy rate to rise about three quarters of a point to 3.0 percent by the end of 2026 and hold there, while still flagging the renewal wall as a real pressure on households.
Sees no move for the rest of 2026, then a measured climb: a first step to 2.50 percent early in 2027 and a second to 2.75 percent by mid-year, staying there into the year.
Argues the Bank is done cutting and the next move is more likely a hike than a cut, with the rate holding through 2026 and then rising toward 3.25 percent by the end of 2027 as demand and trade costs firm.
The steady-hand view: the policy rate holds at 2.25 percent with no compelling case yet for a move in either direction, and on this reading it can stay there through the end of 2027.
No desk on the Street now expects the deep cuts of the last cycle to return. The floor has become 2.25 percent, and the entire debate is about the size and timing of hikes. The risk that was two-sided a month ago now tilts up.
The shape of the market
What it means for your file
The borrowing decision
The gap between fixed and variable is narrow, so the question is which risk you would rather hold, not which rate is lower. With the debate tilting toward hikes, the case for betting on near-term relief is weaker than it was.
Off the GoC 5yr near 3.2 percent, plus a lender spread. You buy payment certainty while the outlook is two-sided.
Off Prime at 4.45 percent. Flexibility, and it pays off only if the Bank resumes cutting, which fewer economists now expect.
CMHC corner: insured & multi-unit
| CMB 5-year | 3.35% | +0.14 over GoC |
| CMB 10-year | 3.79% | +0.20 over GoC |
Insured deals, high-ratio residential through multi-unit, price off the Canada Mortgage Bond, not the policy rate. That spread over GoC is the premium insured borrowers carry, and it widens at the 10-year. On a commercial deal the financing-cost-to-cap-rate spread governs (CBRE: 6.61 percent national all-property cap rate, Q1), and we size to debt service coverage, not a headline. Circle September 30, 2026: CMHC's MLI Select energy scoring tightens, so a build that qualifies under today's scoring is worth moving on. Halifax stays tight: rental vacancy about 2.7 percent, and 0.7 percent for the most affordable units.
What we are watching
Dates per the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada schedules, and are subject to change. Oil and the Middle East remain the wildcard for both inflation and bond yields.
CPI. The Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada's measure of inflation; its year-over-year change is the Bank of Canada's key target.
CORRA. Canada's risk-free overnight interest-rate benchmark, the base for floating commercial and term pricing.
Canada Mortgage Bond. Government-backed bonds that fund insured mortgages; their yield sets CMHC-insured pricing.
Cap rate. A property's net operating income divided by its value, the income yield a buyer earns.
Debt service coverage. The cushion between a property's income and its loan payments; lenders size loans to it.
Basis point. One one-hundredth of a percent. 25 basis points is 0.25 percent.
Spread. The gap a lender adds over a benchmark, or the gap between two rates.
Do not borrow on a forecast, especially when the debate has flipped from cuts to hikes and the desks still disagree on 2027. As brokers, not bankers, our job is to structure financing that fits your timeline, reviewed early, across many lenders. With the Bank on hold, the risk tilting up, and insured spreads narrow, that is where the win is, and the conversation we are here for.
For general information and illustration only, not financial, legal, or lending advice. Rates and figures are market benchmarks as at the dates shown and change frequently. APR. OAC. Subject to change without notice. Mortgage broker services provided by TMG AnchorPoint Mortgage Inc., Licence #3000145.