Where the benchmarks sit today
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | Variable and short-term borrowing |
| Prime | 4.45% | Variable mortgages, HELOCs, lines of credit |
| CORRA | 2.27% | Floating commercial and construction financing |
| Government of Canada 5-year | 3.28% | Conventional fixed mortgage pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5-year | 3.48% | CMHC-insured and multi-unit pricing |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10-year | 3.97% | Longer-term CMHC-insured and MLI Select |
From our live market feed, as at August 14, 2026. Rates and figures change frequently and are benchmarks, not offers.
What is actually happening
Statistics Canada reported July employment up 75,000, well above what economists were looking for, with the unemployment rate falling a tenth of a point to 6.4 percent, a third straight monthly decline and the lowest reading since July 2024. Gains were broad: wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, professional services, and construction all added jobs.
That is the confirmation the Bank of Canada was pointing to in its July Monetary Policy Report, when it said growth had resumed after roughly a year of stalling. Inflation then followed it. Statistics Canada reported July CPI at 3.0 percent year over year on August 17, up from 2.8 percent in June and above the 2.9 percent economists had been looking for. Almost all of that move was energy: gasoline ran 25.7 percent above a year earlier, after the Middle East conflict, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the partial closure of Red Sea shipping routes in late July. Stripped of gasoline, inflation held at 2.2 percent for a third straight month. That distinction is the whole story. A supply shock in oil is the kind of price pressure a central bank generally looks through; a broad-based move is not. This was also the Bank's last inflation reading before the September 2 decision.
Bond markets read the jobs report as confirmation that the cutting cycle is over and the economy has more room to run. The 5-year Government of Canada yield rose to 3.28 percent from 3.21 percent in mid-July, and the Canada Mortgage Bond moved further still, pushing the CMHC-insured spread wider at both the 5- and 10-year points. There was no Bank of Canada decision this month; the next one is September 2.
The benchmarks that move your mortgage
| Benchmark | Now | What it is, and who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% | The overnight rate. It anchors everything and sets the tone for variable and short-term borrowing. |
| Prime | 4.45% | What variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit price off. It moves step for step with the Bank. |
| CORRA | 2.27% | Canada's risk-free overnight benchmark. It drives floating commercial and construction financing and the term pricing built on top of it. |
| GoC 5-year yield | 3.28% | The market yield behind conventional fixed mortgage pricing. A fixed rate is this plus a lender spread. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 5yr | 3.48% | Sets the cost of CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing. Its gap over GoC is the insured premium. |
| Canada Mortgage Bond 10yr | 3.97% | The benchmark for longer-term CMHC-insured and multi-unit financing, including the longer terms common in MLI Select deals. |
The hike case has one clear author. The rest are still holding.
We read the major economics desks so you do not have to. After the July jobs surprise, the picture is more split than it looked a month ago: Scotiabank has sharpened its call for hikes starting this year, while CIBC, National Bank, RBC, TD, and BMO all still expect the Bank to hold at 2.25 percent through the end of 2026. That disagreement is exactly why we build for your timeline rather than a single forecast. One caveat on the calls below: every one of them was published before the July inflation print. None of these desks has yet had a chance to react to a 3.0 percent headline.
The lone desk calling for a move this year. Points to elevated underlying cost pressures (unit labour costs, producer prices, its own cost index) even as headline inflation looks well behaved, and expects the Bank to start withdrawing stimulus in the back half of 2026.
Expects the policy rate to hold at 2.25 percent through the end of 2026, with any move higher pushed into 2027, while continuing to flag the renewal wall, the slice of mortgages facing large payment jumps, as a real pressure on households.
Sees no move for the rest of 2026, then a measured climb: a first step to 2.50 percent early in 2027 and a second to 2.75 percent by mid-year, staying there into the year.
Argues the Bank is done cutting and the next move is more likely a hike than a cut, with the rate holding through 2026 and then rising toward 3.25 percent by the end of 2027 as demand and trade costs firm.
The steady-hand view: the policy rate holds at 2.25 percent, with BMO calling a 2026 hike “a very long shot” given a still-struggling economy, core inflation drifting toward target, and lingering USMCA uncertainty.
Nobody on the Street expects the deep cuts of the last cycle to return; the floor is 2.25 percent. But the hike case has not broadened since last month, it has concentrated in one forecast. Strong jobs data raised the stakes without moving the consensus.
The shape of the market
What it means for your file
The borrowing decision
The gap between fixed and variable is narrow, so the question is which risk you would rather hold, not which rate is lower. With yields rising on strong growth data rather than falling, the case for betting on near-term relief has not improved this month.
Off the GoC 5yr near 3.3 percent, plus a lender spread. You buy payment certainty while the desks stay split on 2027.
Off Prime at 4.45 percent. Flexibility, and it pays off only if the Bank resumes cutting, which no major desk currently expects.
CMHC corner: insured & multi-unit
| CMB 5-year | 3.48% | +0.20 over GoC |
| CMB 10-year | 3.97% | +0.29 over GoC |
Insured deals, high-ratio residential through multi-unit, price off the Canada Mortgage Bond, not the policy rate, and that spread over GoC widened again this month. On a commercial deal the financing-cost-to-cap-rate spread governs (CBRE: 6.58 percent national all-property cap rate, Q2, down 3 basis points), and we size to debt service coverage, not a headline. Circle September 30, 2026: CMHC's MLI Select energy scoring tightens in about six weeks, so a build that qualifies under today's scoring is worth moving on now.
What we are watching
Dates per the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada schedules, and are subject to change. The July CPI print, released August 17, is reflected above. It is the Bank's last inflation reading before the September 2 decision; the August print does not land until September 19.
CPI. The Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada's measure of inflation; its year-over-year change is the Bank's key target.
CORRA. Canada's risk-free overnight rate benchmark, the base for floating commercial and term pricing.
Canada Mortgage Bond. Government-backed bonds that fund insured mortgages; their yield sets CMHC-insured pricing.
Cap rate. A property's net operating income divided by its value, the income yield a buyer earns.
Debt service coverage. The cushion between a property's income and its loan payments; lenders size loans to it.
Basis point. One one-hundredth of a percent. 25 basis points is 0.25 percent.
Spread. The gap a lender adds over a benchmark, or the gap between two rates.
A strong jobs report does not settle the rate debate, it just raises the stakes on both sides of it. Five of six major desks still expect a hold through year end, one does not, and insured spreads widened while everyone argued. As brokers, not bankers, our job is to structure your financing to your timeline across many lenders, not to bet your file on which desk turns out to be right.
For general information and illustration only, not financial, legal, or lending advice. Rates and figures are market benchmarks as at the dates shown and change frequently. APR. OAC. Subject to change without notice. Mortgage broker services provided by TMG AnchorPoint Mortgage Inc., Licence #3000145.